By Daniel J. McLaughlin
The midterm elections in November will decide the make-up of Congress with control of both the Senate and the House of Representatives up for grabs. Currently, the Republicans control the holy trinity of American politics: the White House, the Senate, and the House. All of the 435 House seats and 35 of the 100 Senate seats will be contested.
A blue wave is expected with the Democrats predicted to win the House, but are we being swept up in the hype?
If you consider the latest polls on the midterms, a blue wave is rising for House Democrats. On Wednesday, Quinnipiac University released a poll asking the generic ballot question - would you vote for a Democrat or Republican in your congressional district? - and it showed Democrats with a 14-point lead over Republicans (52 per cent to 38 per cent).
They were not the only ones. A NPR/Marist poll has showed the gap between Democrats and Republicans widening to 12 percentage points - up from seven per cent in July. This is largely down to voters in the Midwest, NPR explains. There has been a Midwestern shift by 13 points in the Democrats' direction. This shift, they write, is "consistent with what Marist has found in statewide polls conducted for NBC in Michigan, Wisconsin and Minnesota that showed President Trump's support there starting to erode".
A Politico/Morning Consult survey shows a similar difference with the Democrats ahead by 10 points. Tyler Sinclair, Morning Consult's managing director, noted that with less than two months until the elections, momentum is building for a 'blue wave': “Our polling shows voter support for congressional Democrats has reached its highest point this year. This week, 45 per cent of voters said they would vote for a Democrat, and 35 percent said they would vote for a Republican.”
The relevant question at this point in the 2018 election, CNN argues, is "not whether this will be a good election for House Democrats, but rather, how good an election it will be". When you consider the latest polls, GOP chances keep getting bleaker, and it appears that it will be a very, very good election for the Democrats.
The blue wave keeps getting bigger for the Democrats as they approach the shore of the midterms. There are 53 days to go until the elections. Of course, anything can happen between now and then, and they cannot afford complacency, but the recent polls should give them something to cheer about.
The midterm elections will be held on November 6, 2018.