No-deal Brexit less severe?

Mark Carney: economy will shrink by 5.5% in worst-case

Daily Telegraph

Carney tones down 'project fear' by admitting no deal slump would be less severe now

The worst-case scenario for a no-deal Brexit is now much less severe than the Bank of England had feared, Governor Mark Carney has admitted.

Mr Carney dialed back the so-called "project fear" warnings of a disruptive departure from the EU by unveiling new worst-case projections after the Government stepped up its no deal preparations.

The Bank now expects the economy to shrink by 5.5pc in the worst-case "no-deal, no-transition" scenario, compared to November's warning of a peak-to-trough decline in GDP of 8pc.

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Will a no-deal Brexit be less severe than previously thought?

By Daniel J. McLaughlin

The predictions for a no-deal Brexit have never been particular hopeful. Leaving the European Union without a deal will hit our economy, but the question has always been: by how much?

The Bank of England has revised its figures, saying that it will be less severe than previous projections. It will still hit the economy by 5.5 per cent.

A new report also claims that a recession is "highly probable" in the worst-case scenario of a no-deal with the bloc.

The Claim

Mark Carney, the Bank of England governor, has toned down 'Project Fear' by admitting a no-deal Brexit would be less severe than thought, the Telegraph reports.

The Bank has revised its worst-case projection after the government stepped up its no-deal preparations.

The economy will still shrink, but it is less severe than its previous projections from the end of last year.

In the worst-case "no deal, no transition" scenario, GDP will fall by 5.5 per cent - down from eight per cent predicted in November.

Unemployment will rise to seven per cent and inflation would jump to 5.25 per cent - compared to previous projections of 7.5 per cent and 6.5 per cent respectively.

The governor said that progress had been made on preparing border infrastructure and rolling over existing trade deals.

He told the Treasury select committee that "the most important step taken by the government was to slash tariffs to zero on 87 per cent of goods entering the UK".

The Counterclaim

While the Bank of England have softened their projections for a no-deal Brexit, it is still gloomy reading. And they're not the one pessimistic about the worst-case scenario for Britain's exit from then European Union.

A new report by thinktank The UK in a Changed Europe predicts that a recession is "highly probable" in the event of a no-deal.

While the markets have anticipated a no-deal Brexit, it will not stop the economy falling into recession.

The government-funded report says it will be start of a "period of prolonged uncertainty for citizens, workers and businesses", according to CNBC.

The report concludes that the impact of a no-deal Brexit will be "significant, damaging and long-lasting, albeit not as immediate and visible as some earlier reports have suggested".

It will see another drop in the pound, squeeze UK incomes, and cause disruption for goods and services from new trade barriers.

Another claim

Nearly three quarters of Britons believe that Brexit will be bad for the economy, a new survey by Spearvest found.

The wealth management company found that 72 per cent of UK workers think that Brexit will hit the economy in the long term.

Almost half (48 per cent) also believe that there will be at least six months of severe economic turbulence.

The survey revealed that over a third (36 per cent) of workers think a no-deal Brexit will see the UK fall into a recession, and 23 per cent predict it will be worse than the 2008 recession.

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CNBC

No-deal Brexit could be the 'end of the beginning' for the UK, research says

Leaving the European Union without a deal will not represent a clean break for the U.K. , but rather usher in a period of prolonged and severe uncertainty for years to come, according to a new report.

The report from academic think tank, The U.K. in a Changing Europe, based out of King's College London, contends that once the U.K. is out of the Article 50 framework, the legal mechanism which triggered the departure process, securing new terms with the bloc will become much harder and more prolonged.

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